This our own evaluation of individual forecasts submitted to the EpiExpert model. This model is submitted to the German and Polish Forecast Hub each week.
These evaluations are preliminary - this means we cannot rule out any mistakes and the plots and analyses are subject to change. The evaluations are also not authorised by the German Forecast Hub team.
If you have questions or want to give feedback, please create an issue on our github repository.
Forecast Visualisation
Germany
2020-10-12


2020-10-19


2020-10-26


2020-11-02


2020-11-09


2020-11-16


2020-11-23


Poland
2020-10-12


2020-10-19


2020-10-26


2020-11-02


2020-11-09


2020-11-16


2020-11-23


Score Ranking
Only those forecasters are named who have submitted a forecast in the most recent evaluated week.
Overall

Overall separate


Germany


Poland


Score Overview
Overview of all the models and metrics
Overall

Overall separate


Germany
Overall


2020-10-12


2020-10-19


2020-10-26


2020-11-02


2020-11-09


2020-11-16


2020-11-23


Poland
Overall


2020-10-12


2020-10-19


2020-10-26


2020-11-02


2020-11-09


2020-11-16


2020-11-23


Overiew of Scores by Horizon
Overview of all models and metrics stratified by forecast horizons
horizon = 1
Overall

Overall separate


Germany


Poland


horizon = 2
Overall

Overall separate


Germany


Poland


horizon = 3
Overall

Overall separate


Germany


Poland


horizon = 4
Overall

Overall separate


Germany


Poland


Interval Score Components
Weighted interval score broken down into its components “overprediction penalty”, “underprediction penalty” and “sharpness”
Overall

Overall separate


Germany
Overall


2020-10-12


2020-10-19


2020-10-26


2020-11-02


2020-11-09


2020-11-16


2020-11-23


Poland
Overall


2020-10-12


2020-10-19


2020-10-26


2020-11-02


2020-11-09


2020-11-16


2020-11-23


Calibration
Interval Coverage
Overall

Overall separate


Plot of the percentage of true values captured by each prediction interval
Quantile Coverage
Overall

Overall separate


Plot of the percentage of true values below each predictive quantile level
Bias
Overall

Overall separate


Separate by date
2020-10-12


2020-10-19


2020-10-26


2020-11-02


2020-11-09


2020-11-16


2020-11-23

